2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS, PART 1: PICTURE, ACTORS, ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, SONG PLUS MORE

We've got a lot to say about this year's Academy Award contenders. So much, in fact, we've split our annual predictions piece into two. Pick some fights with us on this page, then follow the link to Round 2... 

Check out 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS, PART 2: DIRECTOR, ACTRESSES, ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, ANIMATED FILM PLUS LOTS MORE here.

BEST PICTURE: 
The Guild community, which makes up a big chunk of the AMPAS voters, seem pretty united on this front, with Everything Everywhere All at Once taking the award season spoils in recent weeks across a lot of categories. Tough to bet against it at this stage. The other multi-nominated challenger, All Quiet on the Western Front, will get its dues in the International Feature category. 
NOMINEES:All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Banshees of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; Tár; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking
WHO SHOULD WIN: Triangle of Sadness
WHO WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

BEST ACTOR: 
Was Fraser’s to lose for much of the campaigning period, but out-of-the-blue wins for Farrell and Butler have tightened the odds. And a lot of people (ie, those who are backing him as the lead in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator sequel) would like to see Paul Mescal’s performance in Aftersun be recognised, too. Still Fraser by my thinking, but expect this to be a close call.
NOMINEES: Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living
WHO SHOULD WIN: Brendan Fraser for The Whale
WHO WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser for The Whale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
There are so many great narratives - Judd Hirsch’s Fabelmans nod, making the 87 years-young actor the oldest nominee ever in this category; Barry Keoghan’s rags-to-riches boyhood, leading to recognition for The Banshees of Inisherin; funnyman-turned-dramatic powerhouse Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway. Of course, none match the resurgent career of forgotten child star Ke Huy Quan, whose got a lock on the trophy in our opinion.
NOMINEES: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 
The Daniels’ moment. Which is a big call amongst a line-up like this, but…well, here we are.
NOMINEES: Todd Field, Tár; Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
WHO SHOULD WIN: Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness
WHO WILL WIN: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
NOMINEES: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium); EO (Poland); The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Close
WHO WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 
NOMINEES: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; All That Breathes; Fire of Love; A House Made of Splinters; Navalny
WHO SHOULD WIN: Fire of Love
WHO WILL WIN: Navalny

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
NOMINEES: Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems, “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Lady Gaga & BloodPop, “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick; M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose, “Naatu Naatu,” RRR; Diane Warren, “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman; Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski, “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN: M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose, “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR
WHO WILL WIN: M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose, “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

BEST EDITING 
NOMINEES: Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick; Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin; Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa, Elvis; Monika Willi, Tár
WHO SHOULD WIN: Eddie Hamilton for Top Gun: Maverick
WHO WILL WIN: Eddie Hamilton for Top Gun: Maverick

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 
NOMINEES: Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris; Ruth Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Catherine Martin, Elvis; Mary Zophres, Babylon; Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jenny Beavan for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
WHO WILL WIN: Catherine Martin for Elvis

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

NOMINEES: All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Batman; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Top Gun: Maverick
WHO SHOULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water
WHO WILL WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye; Ivalu; Le Pupille; Night Ride; The Red Suitcase
WHO WILL WIN: Ivalu

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers; Haulout; How Do You Measure a Year?; The Martha Mitchell Effect; Stranger at the Gate.
WHO WILL WIN: How Do You Measure a Year?